This is a follow up to my previous post about NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF showing also backing my thesis from a more technical level. I really think this is one of the best risk rewards on the market at this time and also acts as a hedge against stocks if we get bad market news
Right now rates have probably peaked or are close to peaking I strongly believe vehicles like NASDAQ:TLT or AMEX:TMF provide some of the best risk reward for a long swing trade for the next few months. TLT is especially attractive due to its Yield being over 4% at this time. If any fear of recession comes into play over the next year these trades will fly....
Treasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and...
This is a snipet of a more extensive note on themacrobrief.substack.com This trend of central banks accumulating higher gold reserves also holds true on a global basis. This has huge implications for investors as foreign central banks hold lower US Treasury reserves vs higher gold reserves , it puts upwards pressure on US yields (Lower bond prices) and creates...
... for a .98 credit. Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, adding to my position at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Comments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August. July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long...
TLT long term bond ETF ripe for a swing trade to $92 coming off the 1. Hard landing concerns -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT) 2. Faster Fed Rate cuts -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT) 3. Inflation Dropping -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT)
Here's a set up that will be meaningful: NASDAQ:TLT breaking out through the downtrend AND weekly EMA30. The area to watch in the green box 👁️✍️
... for a .98 credit. Comments: Adding to my TLT position on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I already have rungs on in April/May/June, so am adding a smidge out in July. With QQQ and SPY knocking on ATH's, holding off on my usual broad market plays to await weakness and/or higher IV.
Alot of chatter about bonds breaking upward. But I'm thinking there may a short term bounce on the tlt - Looking at May 10 $89 - $89.5 - $90 Calls Lotto contrarian play - Ill see what they do in the morning
... for a 1.09 credit. Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit. Resulting cost basis: 89.11. It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut...
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it.
NASDAQ:TLT runs inverse to the 10YTreassury note. The gap just below $85 should be filled when the 10Y goes back to 4.9%. When the gap closes and yields come back down, NASDAQ:TLT will be the place to park your money... NFA.
NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish...
Watching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114. Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.
TLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.
Good R/R for a long down here, especially with a potential for a weekly hammer to set up a higher low from the 2023 bottom. Especially with a seeming "risk off" in the markets could be an attractive place to look for returns. Been bleeding for a long time... plus take a look at the volume since the bottom.. highest volume since inception at the bottom of the chart