Golden Cross approaching for US 20 Year Bond Yields in advance of the Federal Reserve's Wednesday Meeting and Friday's Unemployment and ISM PMI Reports. TLT to low 80's over next few weeks?
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it.
Another TLT play is about to start. The 20 year bond yields are rejecting off the channels resistance and will likely move back down to the 200 mda and maybe the bottom of the 4 months upward channel. TLT will respond inversely to this. I have been playing TMV and TMF back and forth since November. I'm up 70% over that time. I'll will likely buy into TMF...
HYG broke its' 200 mda - RUT is following HYG down. RUT will likely follow it through the 200mda unless the Plunge Protection Team at the Federal Reserve comes to save it.
LULU to $160 by end of the year. My Chinese Man-Servant showed me that he bought LuLu a few weeks ago. So I slapped him. That is the only reason I have this junk on my radar. Lulu just completed a Bear Flag pattern on the Monthly. It broke out of it in March. Don't hold this train wreck into "higher for longer".
20 yr Bond Yield attempting to break through a 4 month channel resistance. If we can get through and stay above it, Long Bond Yields should get into the Mid 5's and might even challenge 6%. TLT could challenge all time lows ( $80 ) if we can get up there. Great Swing Trade Opportunity both ways.
Monthly DXY is predicting a Hard Landing and Big Fed Pivot soon. We have been in a Descending Triangle since 2022. The pattern is coming to an end and DXY is likely to move to $90 or below.
SPY sideways until Mid-April and then we move down after hitting resistance at 528. 50 day moving average will bounce it back up and then down to 200 moving day we go.
Corporate Bonds continue in their Bull Flag Channel. Bond market keeps telling us that the Fed cannot remain higher for longer. Not sure on timing, however, it wouldn't surprise me if we see the Fed reverse course in the some what near future.
Bullish Falling Wedge continues on TLT. Inflation Data is screaming higher for longer, however the Bond Market continues to "prophesy" a Pivot from the Fed. Does the Bond Market see a massive Bank Failure Event in the near future?
20 year Bond Yield reversed in its' 3 month Rising Channel and is now rising to 4.77% due to inflation data in the manufacturing report. Will it break out this time? If so its' going above 5% again.
The 20 year bond yield is finishing up a 5 month Bear Flag Pattern and on the inverse TLT is finishing up a 5 month Bull Flag Pattern. The Bond Market smells a Fed Pivot in the works. I bought TLT on 3/21/24 and will hold until we reverse at resistance at $96.50. If we break through resistance at $96.50 then momma gets a new card baby because we are going above...
The 20 year Bond Yields has been in a channel since 12/2023. On the weekly, it has hit resistance twice and bounced off. We are approaching a third attempt to break through. Iff it does, whhen it does, its' going to 6%.
The 20 Yr Bond Yield will likely move to 4.7% by March 22nd, 2024 based on its' 12/2023 and 04/2020 Channels. Bought into TMV on 3/11/24 based on this reversal on Friday. Looks like this will be a 15% gain once TMV hits resistance next week.
