Market Update 5/25/2024Going through the usual stuff, my portfolio, performance, losses, mistakes, good trades, lessons learned and opinions for the next weeks. First time I make it public though and I plan to keep doing it weekly22:55by BenedekBokorUpdated 2
TLT wedgeTLT presents a wedge on a rising trend, this is bullish for risk on markets. As inflation remains sticky any report of easing inflation will cause TLT to break through this to the upside. Remember that if 20 year bonds rise, this helps alleviate the yield curve and drop shorter-dated bonds, this reduces overall interest rates. In a healthy market, longer-dated bonds should always provide more yield than monthlies, this is not the case for the last year plus because of the yield curve inversion. -Late June or July this wedge breaks to the upside -Rate cuts will follow -Either the market pumps into elections hard, or we start to go into a recession -I believe Biden will not allow a recession until 2025 due to electionsLongby Apollo_CB5
$TLT: $92-100 before $85-$75I'm not sure what's going to happen in the immediate term (1-2 weeks), but after that I think we'll see a bond rally from middle of June into July up above $92 and the possibility of going as high as $100. My base case is that we get a move up to $97ish level, but not ruling out the possibility of retesting the highs of the recent move. However, after July, things don't look great for bonds, I think we'll see a new low in bonds and a new high in rates that will catch many people off guard. I think we reject somewhere in the $92-100 level and then start our next move down to new lows somewhere in the $85-75 range between August and October. Let's see how it plays out.by benjihyam1
Rolling (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 100 Calls to the 95 Calls... for a 1.09 credit. Comments: Looked at all my options here for the rolling of the short call aspect of my covered calls -- rolling down, rolling down and out, rolling out as is, rolling to shorter duration and down ... . Going with rolling down in the same expiry for a 1.09 credit. Resulting cost basis: 89.11. It still remains a bet that the Fed will cut rates at some point, just with lower max profit potential.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Opened (IRA): TLT Feb 21st 83 Short Put... for a 1.39 credit. Comments: Targeting the 52 week low on weakness here after taking off a rung in September.Longby NaughtyPines0
Opening (IRA): TLT September 20th 83 Short Put... for a 1.08 credit. Comments: Targeting the 52-week low here with a rung out in September (I've already got rungs on in April, May, June, etc.), which I think is unlikely to be touched in light of talk about the Fed cutting rates ... at some point in time. Naturally, if I'm wrong, I'm also fine with picking up shares at a cost basis below the covered call setup I currently have on ... . Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
the case for further pain in bondsmaking the case if the parabola fits, seems to fit better than what has been drawn before, what if personal bias can make things seem rosier than they really areby GoodTexture0
The Traditional 60/40 Portfolio ReimaginedThis is a snipet of a more extensive note on themacrobrief.substack.com This trend of central banks accumulating higher gold reserves also holds true on a global basis. This has huge implications for investors as foreign central banks hold lower US Treasury reserves vs higher gold reserves , it puts upwards pressure on US yields (Lower bond prices) and creates demand for gold resulting in higher gold prices. The Macro Brief is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Traditional 60/40 portfolios are likely to suffer if this trend of replacing US Treasury reserves with gold continues. Traditional 60/40 vs Modern 60/40 vs 60/20/20 Stocks, Bonds & Gold Below are the results for a monthly investment strategy investing $250 a month from 1984 to today in both the traditional 60/40 stocks and bonds vs modern 60/40 stocks and gold and also a balanced approach which has 60/20/20 stocks, bonds and gold. The portfolio is rebalanced yearly. The tailwind in bonds from a 40 year decline in interest rates contributed to long periods of outperformance for the traditional 60/40 portfolio, however the other two portfolios of modern 60/40 and 60/20/20 both produced marginally better performance. Given the macro landscape developing from central banking behaviour and the uncertainty of inflation, interest rates, we could be entering a period where the modern 60/40 produces long periods of outperformance. Considering an allocation which diversifies bond holdings with gold could offer a lifeline for the traditional 60/40 and better prepare investors' portfolios to navigate the road ahead. Whilst the traditional 60/40 stocks and bonds portfolio has been the portfolio of choice for the global trends of the last 40 years, the trends emerging for the decades ahead especially the reduction of foreign central bank holdings of US treasuries and the accumulation of gold as part of their balance sheet means that investors portfolios stand to benefit a great deal by considering a switch from the traditional 60/40 models, with the most likely beneficiary being gold. Stay tuned for more insights on financial strategies, market trends and macro insights from The Macro Brief.by TheMacroStrategist1
TLT Is Coming Into Key Support Within A Corrective DeclineTreasury bond TLT has been trading lower since the start of 2024, but after an impulsive rally at the end of 2023, we believe it's just making and finishing a deep A-B-C corrective decline. It's actually now coming into key strong support zone at 61,8% - 78,6% Fibo. retracement and channel support line, from where we should be aware of bounce, recovery and continuation higher back to 2024 highs. Just keep in mind that bullish confirmation is only above channel resistance line near 92.00 region, while invalidation level remains at 82.45.Longby ew-forecastUpdated 1110
Opening (IRA): TLT August 16th 85 Short Put... for a .98 credit. Comments: Targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit, adding to my position at intervals, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 83/August 16th 83 Short PutsComments: Getting in at strikes better than what I currently have on in July and August. July 19th 83: Filled for an .85 credit August 16th 83: Filled for a 1.11 credit I'm fine with potentially getting assigned with shares at 83, since they're way below the cost basis of the covered calls I currently have on. I knew this might end up being a very, very long duration trade that would potentially take time to work out, but ... yeesh, the weakness. Will look to roll out the most at risk strikes I've got in July (at the 86) and August (at the 85) at some point ... .Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 0
Wedge Forming on BondsThis is a follow up to my previous post about NASDAQ:TLT and AMEX:TMF showing also backing my thesis from a more technical level. I really think this is one of the best risk rewards on the market at this time and also acts as a hedge against stocks if we get bad market news Longby bdsg956
BONDS ARE THE WAYRight now rates have probably peaked or are close to peaking I strongly believe vehicles like NASDAQ:TLT or AMEX:TMF provide some of the best risk reward for a long swing trade for the next few months. TLT is especially attractive due to its Yield being over 4% at this time. If any fear of recession comes into play over the next year these trades will fly. Although you could buy calls I think holding the ETF is the trade since the yield is there for those who simply hold long. I also prefer TMF for large percentage gain since it removes the worry of Theta decay and allows you to average into a position over time. Happy trading! Longby bdsg954
Weak Jobs Report -> Treasury RallyTLT long term bond ETF ripe for a swing trade to $92 coming off the 1. Hard landing concerns -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT) 2. Faster Fed Rate cuts -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT) 3. Inflation Dropping -> Treasury Bond Rally (TLT) Longby Audacity6183
Very nice set upHere's a set up that will be meaningful: NASDAQ:TLT breaking out through the downtrend AND weekly EMA30. The area to watch in the green box 👁️✍️Longby DollarCostAverage223
Opening (IRA): TLT July 19th 86 Short Put... for a .98 credit. Comments: Adding to my TLT position on weakness here, targeting the strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit. I already have rungs on in April/May/June, so am adding a smidge out in July. With QQQ and SPY knocking on ATH's, holding off on my usual broad market plays to await weakness and/or higher IV.Longby NaughtyPinesUpdated 1
Contrarian PlayAlot of chatter about bonds breaking upward. But I'm thinking there may a short term bounce on the tlt - Looking at May 10 $89 - $89.5 - $90 Calls Lotto contrarian play - Ill see what they do in the morning Longby sonidofrankoUpdated 4
Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7Inflation ratios for spotting fed rate trend part 7by JoaoPauloPires0
TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24?TLT to $86 and 20 year yield to 5.2% by 5/3/24? I think the current break out by long bonds into the 5%'s has enough momentum to take the 20 year to 5.2% and TLT to $86. Bought into TMV on 4/24/24 and will hold until we reverse. The PCE report on 4/26/24 will confirm this move or invalidate it. Shortby grumpa06111
$TLT - Trade of the decade. NASDAQ:TLT runs inverse to the 10YTreassury note. The gap just below $85 should be filled when the 10Y goes back to 4.9%. When the gap closes and yields come back down, NASDAQ:TLT will be the place to park your money... NFA. by Parsec14G4
$TLT, the last bond rally before bear market continuation?NASDAQ:TLT seems to be setting up for one last move higher. I think we're likely to see a bottom of the short term move between around here at $92. Then I think post fed meeting, we'll get a move in TLT up to the $98 resistance, that's where you'd want to be a seller of TLT or buy puts. After that, I think largely the remainder of this year will be bearish bonds after the $98 resistance gets tagged. I also think we'll see new lows (I know this is very opposite of what most people think will play out). This is also likely the catalyst that brings down the stock market (rates rise more than people think is possible). Let's see how it plays out.by benjihyamUpdated 7710
TLT LONG SETUPWatching this red box area as highlighted on chart, if TLT starts to trade above this area again this sets up a beautiful failed breakdown setup for a move into 94, 100 and then 105-114. Need to clear 90 for the pattern to trigger/activate and then we go from there.Longby Jovan888448
TLT Investment Opportunity // BuyTLT is back on level which took the liquidity on left side and impulsed a massive bullish movement, there is and identified breaker block before the liquidity was taken and also a fair value gap in yellow.Longby EvergreenWealthAdvisor2