Good day and i hope you are well. Bulls made new all time highs on dax, sp500, nasdaq and the dow (those are the ones i cover, so i don’t care about the rest). Since i don’t think this is the beginning of a new stronger trend, where we rally another 5-10%, all bullish targets are met imo. My focus has now shifted to a change in the character of the market. We had...
Good evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Amazing day by the bulls. They broke strongly out of the bear flag and made the market always in long on the daily so i expect follow through to 78 or higher. bear case: Bears see this as a trading range and they want the market to form a lower high below 78. After such a strong move on the...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today was the day i started talking about around 2 weeks ago. The price action of the last 6 days was conclusive and i had no doubt market will reach the given bullish targets for more bear pain. SP500 e-mini futures printed 5020 and printing a new ath tomorrow is highly probable. I hope you played it and made some. Quote...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today markets tricked many traders into strong moves in a weak environment. The move’s seem like they will break out of the range but they fail at resistance over and over again. It’s a neutral market where buyers and sellers agree on the middle of the range as the fair price. You have to play the range until there is a clear...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets went sideways today, as was expected and laid out yesterday. We are forming many triangles, which means that prices are converging and we get a break out soon. Bears tried a bit but bulls bought it, which confirms my thesis of higher prices. I still expect a bit more sideways movement. If i had to guess, i’d say we...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Last time i talked about Nvidia was 1 week ago and Nvidia at 610. Time to revisit and adjust. If you took the trade, you made about 51 points. I anticipated a much bigger and longer sideways to down move than we had but that is not important because i said buy and it was buy and it's still buy. So what's next for the...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Here my commentary from last week: The bulls got their big breakout and we made 4.65 points last week. The next obvious target is 80 where i expect sideways movement. I also don’t think we can get there without a pullback first. Target for that pb is around 76.5 - 77. We can also just trade sideways in a tighter range but i...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today markets bounced where i expected them and bears did not get the follow through they needed. Here is my quote on that from yesterdays after hour update: But the more probable scenario is that bears will get disappointed tomorrow and we range more days at the highs. And that brings us to, what’s next? Big up, big...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Bears got good follow through today but i think they need one more red day to switch the market to always in short. What are the odds of that? Well, markets normally don’t go from bull trend to bear trend but one could argue we are in a trading range at the top. So it’s not out of the question. But the more probable scenario...
Good evening and i hope you are well. I do the occasional price action analysis of individual stocks and today i try to get my opinion across for alibaba or the death of capital as i see it. I think mostly trapped bulls will click on this, having hopes that someone besides them think "IT JUST CAN'T GO LOWER AND IT HAS TO RALLY". The only question right now for...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets ranged as expected and bears could not make bulls doubt higher prices. Nasdaq was the weakest, while the dow printed new all time highs. The earnings reported after hours seem that they won’t help the bears much either. Sure, nasdaq sold off today but it’s still making higher lows and i don’t expect bears...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today markets continued the bear slaughter and given the very strong bull closes, we can expect more bullish price action and probably blow off tops. sp500 Most bullish of em all. Here my quote from yesterday: Market only gained 60 points which seems after last weeks rally of about 120 points, too little. Bulls sure...
Good morning and i hope you are well. Let's talk some Nvidia. I don't care if you are Jensen himself and think this stock is overbought. There is nothing, i repeat: nothing , bearish about this chart at all. I'm a price action trader so please keep your macro analysis to yourself. This stock is producing gaps above ath's so just don't waste brain capital on...
Good morning and i hope you are well. This week bulls took over again and nasdaq e-mini futures printed a new all time high. After last Thursday and Friday, which gave good looking buy signals, this weeks follow through was expected. As mentioned during the week, i don’t expect much higher prices and that we will form a top here before we trade down over the next...
Good evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil Here my commentary from last week: If you have read the gold one, this one is self explanatory i think. Market is compressing prices and will soon break out. Which direction? Guess. Your’s is as good as mine. I won’t say more about it. Breakout will come soon, so if you haven’t played the range so far, you...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Here is a quote from my substack on Monday about oil: "Most interesting market today. I do believe its a breakout of the bear channel, beginning 2023-09, if bulls can generate follow through tomorrow/Wednesday. The trend line on higher time frames is more of an area than a narrow line with exact prices. But we are there and...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Clickbaity question in topic got you, don’t you deny it. I’m sorry. So i give you my tl;dr first, then you can decide if you want to read through this. I do think the chance that the high’s are in, is greater than that we print higher. Well, why not a yes or a no? Because we are trading and it’s a game of odds and not...
not breaking down means acceptance of higher prices Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets can’t print lower lows and i will stick to my bullish thesis for another leg upwards until bears do. Another day at the highs raises the odds for the bulls, not bears. The rally looks bigger in this chart than it is, we made 26 points from the low, so don’t get...