Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets want green across the board and that means acceptance. Bears can’t deny it because they are not doing anything to stop this so higher prices are the higher probability here, no matter how overbought everything is. The only possibility i can dream up currently is that this quarter was so utterly overbought, that we...
Good Morning and i hope you are well. Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now. No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Markets another selling round today, after the much higher than expected US PPI created big bear bars that were quickly sold, just to break below again. Bears then could not keep the momentum going and most markets ranged afterwards. Oil did exactly what i said it would do for many days now and the 82 target is within...
Good evening and i hope you are well. wti crude oil bull case: Bulls stayed above the daily 20ema which is around 78, they bought where they had to and today was strong enough for at least a second leg, which would bring us back to 81, which is last weeks high. I still expect 82 in the near future. If we get a third leg, that’s the obvious target. The fact...
Good evening and i hope you are well. tl;dr: do or die here at 170 for the bulls. If we break below the bear channel line, bulls covering will fuel this further. Strongly bearish. Last week i wrote the following: "bear case: Price action wise was this a wedge bear flag which broke down and now market will test 175 if there are more buyers than sellers. Not...
Good evening and i hope you are well. bull case: Everything above 2100 is uber bullish because most long term bears already covered, so we could range much more at the highs. Bulls see the sell off by the bears today as weak and they keep the buying pressure on. If you look at the 1h chart, we currently have wild swings up and down on some 1h candles. Some are...
Good evening and i hope you are well. The FX markets are not exciting, since most central banks are doing nothing but waiting currently. Short update it is… eur/usd Quote from last week: bull case: Bulls bought where they needed to because if 1.08 would have failed, that would have been a clear sell signal and 1.075 would have been next. Now they need good...
Good day and i hope you are well. There is a theory of markets, that the ‘Generals’ usually lead the way for the next impulse. I have no idea about the proven probabilities of that but let’s just talk about some big stocks here, which supports my bigger bearish market thesis, that this still might be the blow-off top at the end of a very long ongoing bull trend...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today bulls got another very strong day and either retested the highs or made new ones. ECB paused as expected but markets did not care one bit. Just bullish price action since EU open. Tomorrow more macroschmackro data which could lead to big spikes on a choppy week. I can not rule out market will interpret numbers bullish...
Good evening and i hope you are well. After yesterdays bear surprise (no new ath - big surprise), we got an expected inside bar on most daily charts. I expect another leg down this week, followed by more trading range price action (could chop before too though). nasdaq bull case: Bulls want to reverse the sell off from Tuesday and keep this a trading range at...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Today most markets showed some restraint and bulls actually began taking profits, which is very unusual for the last weeks, to say the least. We don’t know if bulls will be more cautious buying at the highs this time and we go more sideways or bulls will continue the pump further. I will give an update on Bitcoin tomorrow on...
Good evening and i hope you are well. I did not adjust my wave outlook since 2024-02-11 and so far it's pretty perfect. My thesis is we are in w3 and this will be a treat. Late and perma bulls are still long and or will buy 180/175. So if this bear channel breaks down, the short covering will be epic. Market was/is at the strongest and this stock is in a broad...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Quote from last week: Bulls got their major trend reversal and i conclude the bear trend from the 2023-12 over. I drew my next best guess on how this new trend could play out. It’s a small trend inside a bigger trading range, so it will probably be choppy and weak. Bulls managed to trade above the daily 20ema and made it...
Good evening and i hope you are well. I let my thoughts go wild this week so have my tl;dr here: tl;dr: IMO this is the end of the long ongoing bull trend we had and the climactic moves at the end are not as rare as many think. That does not help you with shorts right now. Scalp long where big or many consecutive bull bars appear and wait for bears to show up...
Good evening and i hope you are well. I try to do BTC more regularly now. You can think of bitcoin what you want, but it’s a big enough market to follow the basic principles of human nature and therefore price action patterns. Frankly, i don’t care if you think this is going to 0 or 1.000.000. and you don’t have to either to trade it. bull case: Bulls got the...
Good evening and i hope you are well. I repeated the importance of the monthly close today because my thesis is still that the sp500 e-mini needs daily closes above 5100 for this not being the final move of an unbelievably climactic move. February closed at 5096.5. Does that make my thesis right and we sell off from here? Probably not. Markets mostly going...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Interesting day today. Very strong move by the bulls above many bear trend lines. The first move to 2046 happened exactly in the Globex session as i said but the spike to 2058 was so big, that all bears had to give up. I expect follow through. Quote from yesterday: At 2046ish are 3 magnets: upper bear trend line, 1h 20ema...
Good evening and i hope you are well. Quote from my weekly outlook: short term: slight favor for the bulls to reverse Friday and trade above 79, there could still be resistance if bulls won’t push above with some force. bears win below 75 for at least 74 or lower That outlook was good for 300 pips. Hope you made some. bull case: Bulls got exactly what i...