WinterIsComing1929

WinterIsComing1929

Hong kong: Is anyone paying attention? The HKD peg is being tested. The Banking bubble in both China & Hongkong are pretty bad. Both China's and Hong Kong's banking assets are at unprecedented levels China = 417% of GDP Hong Kong = 962% of GDP

WinterIsComing1929

Paradigm Shifts/Speculative Peaks, SP500 bottomed 13% lower than 2002’s bottom in 2009, 17% lower than 1998’s LTCM Crisis low in 2002, and 10% lower than 1970’s low in 1975 15% lower than the COVID low is SPX 1,862, Shiller PE of 16, Nominal PE of 9 in historic range

WinterIsComing1929

After 2000, the Nasdaq had # of the bear market rallies > 10% averaging 22.7% before bottoming down 78%.

WinterIsComing1929

Dead cat Bounces are the most epic. After 1929, the Dow had 10 bear market rallies >10% averaging 22.8% before bottoming down 89%

WinterIsComing1929

For my records. Federal Reserve is hiking rates when consumer sentiment is at one of the lowest in history. First time in history they hike with consumer sentiment at these level, they used to cut rates in the past. Recession, or a possible depression, is highly likely in 2022~2023