The critical support level to watch here is the 50-day MA at 4.38%, as a failed break below this yield will allow yields to spike to 5% off the back of a continued sell-off in US long-term paper despite the Feds efforts to aid the US bond market. Keep an eye on the tail in this week’s US 10-year note auction!
The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors.
The week ahead will allow markets to digest the Fed’s more dovish stance as there are no major data prints on the calendar. The US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions will be the main attraction for the week ahead and we will be able to gauge whether investor appetite for long-term US debt has improved following the latest monetary developments. The recent demand for long-term US paper has been fragile with long tails forcing dealers to pick up the slack in the US bond market
The markets were hit by a dovish FOMC statement last week. US bond yields and the dollar tumbled off the back of the increased bets for rate cuts in 2024. The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% but the real dovish sentiment started flying when the Fed announced that they will slow their balance sheet taper to $25 billion, down from $60 billion, per month. That is a whopping $35 billion that will technically be injected into the market. The dovish FOMC meeting was followed by a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing PMI print along with a feeble non-farm payrolls print of 175 thousand in April, down from 315 thousand in March. These data prints along with the recent weak US GDP results is increasing the odds for a Fed rate cut sooner rather than later as the Fed may be forced to stimulate the economy before they reach their lauded 2% inflation target. On top of all this, last week US regulators announced the first US bank failure of the year with Philadelphia-based Republic First Bank being forced to close its doors.
The week ahead will allow markets to digest the Fed’s more dovish stance as there are no major data prints on the calendar. The US 10-year and 30-year bond auctions will be the main attraction for the week ahead and we will be able to gauge whether investor appetite for long-term US debt has improved following the latest monetary developments. The recent demand for long-term US paper has been fragile with long tails forcing dealers to pick up the slack in the US bond market