2024-04-30 - a daily price action after hour update - sp500

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

overall market comment
End of month proved to be volatile and bears made clear that the last bounce was a lower high and we are on our way to new lows. My overall market thesis for the last 2 weeks was, that this bounce should be a W2 and we are in a new bear trend. Now bears need strong selling to break through the previous lows and make even the last bulls cover for their life’s.

sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Not as weak as dax but same play. Retest of 5000 is next and retest of 4963 highly likely if we break 5000.

current market cycle: bear trend
key levels: 5000 - 5150

bull case: Here bulls could not touch 5150 again and gave up on US open with a big bear bar similar to EU open. Bulls tried to stay above 5125 but failed and then we just crashed down to 5065 and closed at the lows. Best bulls can hope for here is to find support around 5000.

bear case: Huge day for the bears as in dax. Big round number as support coming up with 5000 and we will see how long it can hold. Can my bear trend thesis be wrong and 5000 won’t be broken and we range 5000-5150 for many weeks? Absolutely. I gave enough reasoning over the past weeks why I think we are in the new bear trend. Bears need to keep it below 5100.

short term: Down to sideways - 5000 will probably be big support and we can move sideways first again

medium-long term: Full bear below 5000. Lower high W2 is in, We are in W3 and my target for W5 is around 4600.

trade of the day: Short, no ifs and buts. Just sell anywhere and have an appropriate stop.