2024-05-06 - a daily price action after hour update - dax
I was clearly wrong with the bearish reading and bulls got another strong day and closed at the highs. Strong buying signal going into tomorrow for at least a bit more upside but we got so far, there is no reason why can’t make another couple of points to retest the all time highs now, where I expect sellers to step up again and bulls to take profits.
dax
comment: Bear channel clearly broken, no ifs and buts anymore.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 18000 - 18836
bull case: Bulls got it. Measured move target from the big bull spike from EU open is around 18500. Bulls next target is 18400 and if bears do not come out guns blazing tomorrow, we will print 18500 with ease. Invalid below 18250.
bear case: Bears nowhere to be seen and it’s unreasonable to think they will just show up tomorrow and begin a sell-off. The best they can hope for is to stop the rally at 18400 and transition into a trading range 18300 - 18400 until bulls begin to take profits again. They have a very slight chance of 18420 begin bigger resistance because that was last weeks high and there are many trapped bulls who could gladly sell out of their positions but that’s a weak argument at best.
short term: Sideways to up
medium-long term: My long term outlook stays bearish and I expect at least a -20% correction in 2024. Medium term is 17100 while I think we can touch the big bull trend line starting 2022-10 around 16700 in 2024.
trade of the day: Just long from EU open. No bear bar in sight. Can close longs after bar 49 but you have to get long again on bar 55 because 52,53,54 showed a clear support level and 54 closed on it’s high and 55 was follow through which broke above the 15m 20ema and market never touched it again until US close.