Ben_1148x2

Ben_1148x2

Round numbers have psychological importance to market participants. They often initially act as a barrier. Once cleared they can become support or... a distant location in the rearview mirror. For reference, notice LLY's consolidation below 600 and how it took off after clearing it. A full candle close above 800 implies continuation. The next area of interest for...

Ben_1148x2

Semiconductors have been strong performers and this period of the year has become increasingly strong for them from a seasonality perspective. AI is being described as one of the fastest adopted technologies of all time. So it's fascinating to see INTC continue to underperform all of its major cohorts in in the space.

Ben_1148x2

AMEX:SOXL setting up for a beautiful run ahead of NVDA earnings. Note the structure similar to Justin Mamis sentiment cycle.

Ben_1148x2

NYSE:MPC is a fantastic company, but is falling with the rest of the energy sector. Starting with the weekly chart: Its fallen out of the 12 month regression channel and is at the middle of the channel from where its uptrend began in the fall of 2020. The composite index is at the 3rd most oversold level on the weekly, prior being the covid low and the July...

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:FETUSDT is setting up for a great opportunity. I'd like to see it clear the blue VWAP anchored to the March high. I'll likely take an entry on breakout and a 2nd on a retest.

Ben_1148x2

One of the key principles of Dow Theory is that indices must confirm each other. Specifically, upward movement in industrials needs to be confirmed by transports. For a trend to be valid, both the DJIA and DJTA should move in the same direction. If both indices are making new highs or new lows simultaneously, it confirms the overall trend (bullish or bearish)....

Ben_1148x2

Energy does not look good right now. XLE+XOP has an inverse correlation to the gold/oil ratio. The two only move into neutral and positive correlations for brief periods before one of them changes direction. Additionally, when the gold/oil ratio crosses 30 we’ve seen energy prices begin to fall to more extreme lows. The technicals above indicate gold is...

Ben_1148x2

TVC:GOLD had a great retest of the 0.382. and momentum is signaling a move higher. I like profit taking at a retest of 2430, at a measured move to 2497, and at 2535-2580.

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VIX Keltner and regression channels, along with VIX/VIX3M and the trend index of VIX and the S&P indicate we've reached a local low. TVC:VIX SP:SPX CBOE:VIX3M

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NYSE:IBM opens with an island top. The last time that it had bearish divergences into a 52w high it drew down 20% over 100 sessions. airgap to the 160-165 range aligns to the 0.618. The next airgap to 150 aligns to the 0.786.

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AMEX:XLP regained its YTD and MTD anchored volume weighted average price, as well as the VWAP anchored to the 3/21/24 FOMC meeting. Momentum is turning sharply upward and most major moving averages are in a productive relationship to one another and price. Additionally, XLP/SPX is showing a potential reversal toward relative strength. It's crossed above the MA...

Ben_1148x2

VIX volatility index shown with the S&P, with the VIX divided by the 3 month VIX, Keltner bands, and a regression channel drawn from the March 2022 high of the VIX. For those that aren’t familiar, the VIX is an expectation of volatility based on S&P options. It can be used to forecast a change in price that can go in either direction. The range that the VIX moves...

Ben_1148x2

NASDAQ:COST with Martin Pings KST "know sure thing" indicator, which uses a composite of 4 smoothed rates of change to identify changes in trend. Shown here with a Chaikin oscillator (accumulation/distribution). If we were to enter and exit the day after a cross over the worst case outcome over the past 3 years was 1.5% return in August 2023.

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NYSE:AMT is testing the 0.786 level from the last swing high. Failure to hold makes it more likely that we continue lower. The pattern is very similar to Justin Mamis sentiment cycle. If the current level fails to hold, a scenario completing this cycle would likely align to the concentration of volume between 136-145, and to the 1.272-1.414 fib retrace. If...

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NYSE:ABBV is a great company. It's part of my long-term portfolio and is one that I've been able to manage well with technical analysis. I am not adding unless I see price fall to 155 or until we get to August/September where it hits its seasonal low. This drawdown has risk of continuation for a number of reasons: Momentum was falling as price was rising....

Ben_1148x2

KRAKEN:TIAUSD had a great run in the second half of 2023 but has cooled off in 2024. I've kept it on my watch list for future opportunities and it's had very predictable movement throughout this fib fan. The current declining price diverges with the composite index, price momentum oscillator, and detrend oscillator. Previously this has led to at least a minor...

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:JTOUSDT is one to keep watching this cycle. First target reached for this trade. Next will be ~4.07, then ~4.50 target.

Ben_1148x2

BINANCE:XRPUSD has VWAPs anchored to recent highs and lows squeezing. These are aligning very cleanly to two fib time zones drawn from significant uptrends and downtrends. Whichever direction it breaks should continue to the next support/resistance range