Daily Chart: ZB(30y Bonds) v US10y (10Y Yields)Please read descriptions in chart on analysis. overall, not much news this week, just FED speak and NVDA earnings plus Memorial day next week so we can have a choppy week awaiting next week's databy pwizzle342
US10Y held the 1D MA200 and is starting a new rallyThe U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) is expanding the new Bullish Leg, and continues to follow the buy signal we gave on January 24 (see chart below): Last week it tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support, for the first time since April 01 and held. As a result, we expect it to resume the Bullish Leg, the same way it did on July 19 2023 and test initially the previous Higher High of the 2-year Channel Up. Our Target is slightly below at 5.000%. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇Longby TradingShot2213
US 10Y TREASURY: smooth optimismInvestors are still weightening the latest inflation data posted during the previous week. Posted inflation figures were in line with the market estimate. Inflation rate reached 3.4% on a yearly basis, while core inflation eased to 3.6% in April. By putting it into a perspective of jobs data and consumer sentiment, inventors are perceiving that the first rate cut might occur in September this year, with currently 54% odds. This sentiment pushed the equity markets in the US, however, US Treasuries were traded in a mixed manner. Namely, the 10Y benchmark yields started the previous week around 4.5% level, and during the week were pushed to the lowest weekly level at 4.32%. Still, yields are ending the week at 4.42%. The level of 4.2% is currently tested. Market will start the week ahead trying to break the 4.2% line to the upside. Some volatility might be expected in the coming period, and data are still not completely clear in which direction the inflation in the US is heading. In this sense, there is some probability for the 4.5% level to be tested for one more time, but there is no indication that this level might be breached. On the opposite side, the easing of yields might go down to the level of 4.3% for one more time. by XBTFX11
US 10 Year Bonds - Weekly Outlook - 20 May 2024 - Image Daily chart of US 10 Year Bond As per image, we have had two drives up, and are finding support here, so i would think there is at least one more drive up. I'll be looking to get long as per my diagram shown, with SL and TP as shown. Longby TraderRiz5
US10Y - US02Y = Crash ZoneCrash Zone highlighted in Red. Fair warning is given as well; "Sell Sell Sell" by ILuminosityUpdated 8848
Bond Market Hints Towards a Second Wave of Shorts to hit the JPYLate last year the Spread of the US/JP Carry Trade hit the PCZ of a Bearish Shark resulting in it pulling back to the 50% Retrace, this came ahead of Bearish Action in the stock market and strength in the JPY. However, the bounce at the 50% retrace indicates that it could turn into a Bullish 5-0 which would result in higher highs. In addition to that, the leverage ratio on the trade has been forming what looks to be a nice looking Cup with Handle pattern, which if it plays out would bring the leverage ratios up from 500% to well over 800%. This would likely align with higher highs in the SPX, Higher Inflation Rates, Higher Commodity, Import/Export Costs, and a continuation of the falling Japanese Yen. I will leave the chart of last year's Carry Spread Chart Post below for reference. Longby RizeSenpai0
The Bond DilemmaThis is a simple setup resulted from the analysis, processing, and simulation, of several future scenarios that might unfold. The rectangles are projected support and resistance zones where the price might hit a bump, create a turnaround, or halt it's actions into a consolidation zone, before continuing on its initial path. The small orange one marks a potential milestone for a scenario in which in case it is hit, and only in this scenario, a pivot point might be expected at the marked time stamp. The marked price level is also relevant in case a correction is formed near it, leading to a potential end of it, with a candlestick potential reversal pattern that can signal an opportunity to jump on the action of the next wave. We use Japanese Candlesticks in our analysis to compute the tendencies of the market, the sentiment, the overall context of each wave, but also to assess any potential weakness in a wave (useful and required for position management), or a complete reversal. While the obvious scenarios in which a turnaround can occur at the upper rectangle, a bounce from the red one, or an incursion towards the big green one, might sound appealing to us, we must also not limit ourselves to such scenarios and keep an open mind for any other opportunities signaled by the candlestick analysis, and the overall context of the flows and events in the market. As usual, this project will be followed by short updates for milestones, highlights, or potential red alert scenarios (pivot points or reversals). Trade with care, and may the force of profits be with you!by nenUpdated 5543
The INFAMOUS Blow Off Top!!! US10Y US02Y $TLTThe indicators from this chart which backtested to call the 1990s Gulf War recession, the Thai Baht, the 1998 LTCM, the 2000 dotcom bubble, the great financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all before they officially happened. It is calling for whatever this next crisis is going to be called. I placed MOAB or mother of all speculative bubbles for the crisis holding name. I am sure the talking heads on TV who never saw this coming will give their two cents about how great everything is. Clearly, we have issues in society and those issues are being pasted over on the market with money printing. This isn't doom-bear BS, it's just an indicator that has front-run every single one of these black-swan events. The best way to play this is to reduce broad market exposure and sell into the big up days. Look at defensive plays like bonds, gold, and US dollars. Now that doesn't mean you can't stay net long, for that consider option spreads, but this tells you to clearly lower your exposure. NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD TVC:GOLD NASDAQ:IEF AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQby rwoods1874
US10Y - US Ten Year Yields WeeklySome weekly consolidation; Possible yields haven't topped yet. These inflection points lead to weekly and monthly trend changes which I will be looking for a potential spike as momentum shifts back down and rates test the keltner channel mid or upper line. There is also a possibility that rates breakout of the resistance (trend change) of this bullish leg from 2020. The Red line on the keltner channel oscillator at the bottom. I expect more black swan events to occur as chaos ramps up in the next year.by MikhiavelliUpdated 21
Rates are breaking recent up trends, $TNXGood Morning Everyone! The 2Yr Yield is retesting the recent support level, highlighted by arrows. The 10Yr #yield is currently breaking the recent uptrend. The yellow box was highlighted in the last post showing the WEAKNESS. However, forgot to speak on that yesterday (see profile for more info). They cannot lower #interestrates... But they must, at least short term. QT is done.by ROYAL_OAK_INC0
US 10Y TREASURY: watch for CPIMoves in Treasury yields during the previous week are showing that the market has already priced all known information, and waiting for new ones in order to decide on a further action to the up or downside. The 10Y Treasury benchmark was moving between levels of 4.51% down to 4.42% on one occasion. The majority of deals were around the 4.5% level. It should be mentioned that a 30-year bonds auction was held the previous week, where strong demand for these bonds was evident. This demand was led by latest US unemployment data and investors expectations of rate cuts during the course of this year. In this sense, a demand for other maturities, including 10Y was left out of the focus. In a week ahead a fresh US consumer price index data will be released, which might bring back some volatility on the Treasury yields. If the CPI is higher from market expectations, then yields might be pushed to the upper side, at least 4.55%, with low probability for 4.6%. However, if the CPI data show some relaxation, then the Treasury yields will continue their current path to the downside, and the level of 4.4%. by XBTFX18
US10Y - Take Note Of 4.549%Lows of 4.420% was printed this trading week with minimal draws to buyside liquidity as yields had been trading within the weekly fair value gap. Intraday-week market structure shift occurred during Thursdays US AM session before a minor retracement below consequent encroachment @ 4.458 ensued. This leaves buyside ripe for the takings and I’ve got my eyes on 4.549%. Longby LegendSince2
US30Y headed up back to 5%?US30Y headed ⬆️ to 5%? If it breaks above 4.83%, then most likely it'll explore the further premium areas of the range. US30Y is currently doing a very methodical climb up, as compared to a very rapid fall post Nov 23. This should be fun to watch! 🤩 Longby makuchaku116
What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? What would happen if the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 20%? The clear five-wave pattern in bond yields is causing concern.by Courage_Faith3
UK Bond Steps and ForcesThis is my perspective on the forces that might apply on the UK 10Y Gilt. It can climb along the red rectangles to fall down to the big green or if the first red rejects it or the bottom arc attracts it, we might see support in that area. The vertical green is a special one where unusual or special circumstances and price action might occur, either higher volatility or sudden shift in sentiment. Treat everything as potential support and resistance but also stepping stones in case the market follows the main scenario highlighted with the purple path arrow. The second one with checkmarks is secondary and depends on the activity at the first vertical long red in case we reach it. Arcs are special forces of attraction and or repulsion. They can be broken depending on the momentum or type of activity. If the price slows down near them it can just slide through them, but if candlestick patterns of potential reversals and inflections are formed, I will take a good look at them when deciding how and if to approach the market or adjust/manage previously opened positions.Uby nenUpdated 5
Huge potential implications from YIELD SPREADS (US10y-DE10y)Folks know how I feel about very long term (multi year/decade+) outlook for inflation and yields - they are going higher. And I have called for higher yields (and spreads) and thus dollar so far this year. BUT BUT BUT The yield spread chart is suggesting a potential divergent high which could have MAJOR implications across asset markets. Is it fortelling a turn in the sequence of stronger US data? If so then in coming weeks/months we could see: Weaker data Lower yields (esp in the front end) Curve "disinversion" Weaker DXY Higher risk assets = stonks, commods (gold silver, Uranium, oil etc), Bitcoinby WVS_Stockscreen8
US10 yield is "far" from long term "peak". 9/May/24US10Y > 8% what happen for those house/ car mortgage? What happen to #gold when big player have "guaranteed" in bank deposits? What happen to "healthy" bank's "stock"?..by SteveTan1
stagflation pattern or parallel channelrate is moving up in yellow parallel channel lower yellow line is working as perfect trend line in recent may fomc fed has said he neither see stag or flation if there are no hike in future then lower trend line must break if second wave of rate hike is coming then trend line must hold and it can go up 5%Longby Sangam-Agarwal3
US10Y - Bullish Sentiment ShiftWith predominantly bearish price action during the week, intraday sentiment is more shifted towards a continuation to the downside at this current time. Due to higher time frame narrative, I am looking out for a retracement to 4.563% hourly fair value gap. Candle body closure below 4.455% will negate the idea.Longby LegendSinceUpdated 5
US02Y Next Move The matter still requires deeper analysis, despite the absence of wide-ranging movement today. The recent decline in bonds did not help boost gold prices. The yield on the two-year US bond is currently at a support level of about 4.8% on the one-dimensional chart and may look to rise. If the Federal Reserve maintains a tight policy, gold may struggle to rise. However, if we begin to receive signals indicating that the Federal Reserve may wish to continue lowering interest rates this year, gold may be more optimistic. We should monitor the level of two-year and ten-year bonds, the direction of the dollar index, and geopolitical aspects to be clear about the direction of gold.by Hejaaa5
Ukraine bondsThere is clear 5 wave impulse down and clear initial impulse up which has a-b-s correction. What else needed for long?Longby VT-2Updated 5
US10Y 2024 FULL YEAR FORECASTI will start forecasting full years in advance and provide updates from there finally understand how the bond markets works dont be fooled folk 2024 nasdaq is crashing market is overbought the recovery was too quick easy come easy go and only the informed are preparing their shorts if u appreciate my work like, tip, comment, follow Longby Bekiumuzi_DubeUpdated 19
US10Y - Sloppy Bearish BiasThe weekly range spans from 4.570% - 4.739% and with the weekly EQ being tagged alongside buyside getting swiped, I am scoping out for the daily order block which is near the weekly sellside @ 4.593% and the second target being the lows at 4.570%. Some form of a pullback into the lower displacement weekly fair value gap is a projection for throughout the trading week is logical to expect, especially during volatile days where there is a lot of news releases. Also to note, the Sep - Oct 2023 weekly liquidity void is also a area of importance, especially the consequent encroachment which already aligned with the daily order block so during the week I will update this post if bias has changed. Shortby LegendSinceUpdated 4