The volatility of the asset can be viewed relative to the width of the Bollinger lines, and it is also convenient to use the BBW oscillator for this. ✍️We have mainly 3 waves of increasing volatility before the main bull run. The first is mostly the bottom of the market, and the second or third is the midcycle peak. If one wave was quite large, the next one is...
Let's think about what a correction would look like if the selling zone of the whales became strong resistance. In the last post, we looked at how often the BMS acts as a support, and that as soon as we move away a lot, a correction occurs. Last time at the beginning of 2023, we were only 32% away (now 40%). Larger distances from BMS were only on the 2021 bull...
BTC Keltner Channels 🔝Bitcoin broke out of the baseline resistance, under which it consolidated for a long period. ✍️While I don't expect a return below this gray line until the peak of the cycle, remember that it is almost 2 years away and we will have more than one correction before then. 💡I expect especially volatility in the next six months when there are...
#Bitcoin and the SPX most of the time correlate (move in the same way). It is clearly visible that most of the histogram is green except for some cases which I circled in gray areas. Recently, there was again such a zone of decorrelation, and even though the majority wrote that everything bitcoin has nothing to do with the stock market. As we can see, the...
Historically, the mid-cycle peak in CRYPTOCAP:BTC coincides with the RSI approaching the overbought zone. Although at the beginning of the year, we rose quite high in the #RSI indicator, there was no overbought. Also, on the trend line rsi, it is quite clear how the bearish trend changes to the bullish one, on the range of the cycle 📈📉 Key levels have been...
#Bitcoin/#SPX: In search of The ATH 🔎 In the last post, I predicted when the mid-cycle peak would be, as you can see from the comment post quite accurately✍️ Now about taking the marks of the past peak (69k). This happens about 2 years after the bottom. When RSI, after taking a mid-cycle peak, again enters the zone of overbought values in CRYPTOCAP:BTC ...
Bitcoin Correlation with Dollar A weaker DXY = a positive for BTC ✍️ The chart below shows the moments when 2 assets are correlated (circled⭕️). Note the DXY is inverted. In the last post, I said that I expect the dollar to continue to fall, leading to BTC's growth. 💡What's next? Now, most analysts agree that the key rate will decrease in 2024, which is...
Global Net Liquidity Correlation with #Bitcoin The main factor in liquidity growth was the infusion from China (PRC - money supply M2 = +10.3%). There is also some optimism that Western countries will move to lower key rates in 2024. 💡The majority would probably like countries to start printing money in large quantities in a short period, like in 2021, and their...
At a time when popular analysis promised rapid movement without corrections above 100k. I kept stressing that in a healthy bull market, there are corrections and that's normal, you have to be ready for that. Today there was a small correction, even rather a long squeeze, which is difficult to call a correction. And already the majority of the market is starting...
Recently, there has been a lot of speculation about ATH. "We will take ATH in 2023, we will take ATH until the halving"📰 Let me tell you, it won't happen, at least not so quickly. On average, the time from the bottom to taking the past high takes ~700 days. Add diminishing returns here, because large capitalization does not allow BTC to grow as fast as...
I have the impression that there hasn't been a bull market for so long. That most have forgotten what he looks like. This does not mean that the BTC draws green bars every day and soon we will fly to ATH/100k/Moon 🚀 💡Let me remind you, in bull markets, the number of leveraged traders that big players want to cut often increases. This leads to corrections, often...
Our current mid-cycle peak is starting to look more and more like 2019, not from the point of view of the phase of the cycle, but from a fairly strong moment and overbought. The difference from the last time is that this time it is closer to halving, and it can be like the beginning of an active phase of growth, without essential corrections. Which, I think is...
I already wrote earlier that digital gold often correlates with classical gold. The Spearman correlation clearly shows a short-term trend, and although there are moments when there is a discorrelation (red histogram), most of the moments are above 0 in green🟩 values. 💡I would say that it is a good trend that the correlation is increasingly positive because this...
In the last post, I said that I expect the end of the accumulation and good momentum with a breakout of the baseline↗️ And that happened. I can adjust only that, I do not expect such a deep correction, but only a retest of the support line. On the RSI, a retest of zone 50 is possible. After these moments, closer to spring, a clear uptrend can be expected⤴️
As we have said in previous posts, an exit above 0 in GaussianAO is quite a bullish sign and will take us to the 0.61 mark before the halving.✅ Since we have already broken out of the channel, I would expect a descent back into it, which means that even before the halving we will see one consolidation with a possible retest of the ~33k zone. Closer to Q1 2024, I...
What do the liquidity map and purchases of big players tell us.📝 There were many large purchases in the area, 33-34k is a potential support zone where they can occur again in the event of a correction. Also, if the short-term players continue to short the highs with leverage, I think we can wait for them to be cut in the area of 38k (short squeeze).↗️ Although...
As I predicted, it will happen by the end of 2023. On the weekly RSI, we entered the overbought zone. Earlier I wrote: Historically, the mid-cycle peak in Bitcoin coincides with the RSI approaching the overbought zone. Additionally, considering the "Feels invest zones", we can observe that the purple zone🟪 often acts as a significant resistance level.
Bullrun after a Bollinger breakout When the price breaks through the upper line of the Bollinger channel in the past, it has led to a bull run. Did it happen the first time? Not quite, historically, if the line was tested in the early stages of the bull market (closer to the bottom), the channel was mostly not broken and we went to the correction, otherwise it...