Setups on COIN and MSTR are somewhat similar. Different in many respects because MSTR was at a high but very similar in the 4.23 extensions (Which often marks trend exhaustion). An additional factor to support the case for a possible reversal here is we have the 76 fib. If BTC breaks again, it's liable to make a really scary looking chart. And if that...
We've been making lower highs for a while. If this pattern is to hold we'd have optimal shorting entries here. We are rallying strong into the 76 retracement, triggering a possible 76 reversal:
We might be in bearish Elliot waves here on ES / SPX. If we are, there's a good chance we are at a low point now and due to enter into an ABC correction. A two leg spike with a bear trap (But no new low) in the middle. Sets up a possible high RR short on the C point. Most of the previous short forecast has hit now.
Bitcoin has had all the hallmarks of a speculative mania for a while and recent discussion with BTC bulls has further convinced me we're in a speculative mania. There's a strong recurring theme to the comments: "It has intrinsic value" ... But what is it? Saying something has an intrinsic value does is not a default justification for the current...
ETH trades at a massive confluence of resistance zone indicating we're likely to see a big trend decision in this soon. In this area we have the completion of a possible bearish head and shoulders, bearish crab and this is also a long term resistance from the fib extensions of the last major pullback. The head and shoulders and crab are both patterns which can...
This strategy is intended to be a method to help to differentiate a pullback from reversal. Here we're using the butterfly pattern which is a continuation pattern, but the failure of this continuation pattern can mean the failure of the trend. It's a very useful signal that can be used on all time frames. You can find great examples of this before crashes...
The butterfly can appear as a corrective pattern in a trend. When it does, it's a two leg correction. The second leg is a false breakout of the first. Being a harmonic, the final leg (D leg) is always the strongest. When the butterfly serves as a corrective pattern, strong follow through can come. In the times this works, we usually see the next swing...
Harmonics are a very useful tool for gaining insight into possible reversal levels after strong trends. "M" shapes are often found at the bottom of trends and "W" shapes at the top. Most often these fit into the rules of the butterfly reversal. A defining characteristic of the butterfly is the final leg (D leg) is always a very strong leg. It's a strong and...
The 1.61 head fake strategy is intended to give early signals of where a high/low might be and be an early tell on the potential turn of the trend. This strategy can be used for both pullbacks and reversals. When traded as a correction, this strategy usually is successful in the forecasting and trading of the end of Elliot wave 5 heading into the ABC....
The 76 correction strategy aims to pick up optimal continuation trades into large retracements. It's a trend following strategy that aims to enter into strong counter trend moves to a 76% retracement of the previous trend leg. This strategy usually performs best when combined with Elliot wave. Waiting for there to be a full impulsive leg in 5 waves followed by a...
I think we're going to see EURUSD trading into the 0.9s and maybe even the 0.8s. I think the Forex markets are soon going to explode, with USD and JPOY being the big winners.
DXY has filled all my original target area given through early 2022 as far back as mid 2021. Filled all this area and then put in a big multiple 100 pips spike. These fill my exit condition. I am now out my USD longs. Might go long if we break highs. Might go short if we show weakness. Currently no USD trades on. It was a good run.
In general did a lot of exiting of shorts today. Still hyper bearish but I'd prefer to short into rallies. BTC I think might have another spike in it even if the main high is in. Setting some limit orders for this now. Stops above the 86 fib. I still don't rule out a harmonic spike out to ATH, but shorting a little spike here would seem a no brainer.
I am starting to build up a swing bear position again but there's a lot of risk of aggressive stop hunting before a big reversal sets up. In the case of aggressive stop hunting, I'd expect to see somewhere around 5170 hitting. Picking up longs now to offset accumulation of a short position into a rally if one comes. Would love to be short in the 5200 - 5600...
Have spoken a lot more about this while it was setting up in this thread: Here's a few more thoughts: 1 - BTC has always held the retest of the high in successful breakouts. The only instance it never was the start of the 2022 bear move. 2 - If BTC drops to under the low last a pending bull butterfly will form. If this fails, it predicts capitulation to 40K...
This post is an attempt to have a good faith and civilised discussion about the numerical value of a Bitcoin. Not stating the properties that give Bitcoin "A value". A discussion into how we actually can assign a number value to the price a Bitcoin would be fairly priced. Hopefully we can have an interesting discussion where people share their ideas and no one...
The big drop yesterday hit the target level of around 5140. See below idea. Picked up some small long positions there and have been waiting since. We're now getting back to 5200 where I find interesting as a possible sell cont spot. Stops trailed on longs so I stay long if it just rallies through and some shorts taken 5200. Also some limit orders for if...
Yesterday during the drop close to 5200 I said I was buying short term calls OTM because I thought we'd see some sort of bull trap. Had through it would be a lot bigger but the main thing I was looking to see was a clean 2 leg bull trap. We have this now and are in the potential reversal zone of a bearish butterfly. Implied target for a successful butterfly...